US Energy Policy: Good Is Not Good Enough

Here are a few articles related to the current legislation in the US Senate right now:

A Real Bill for the Climate: Here’s a quick one that explains the situation in congress right now with the current energy bill and why it should be more of a climate bill than an energy bill.

CO2 Cartoon

David G. Klein, NYTimes

A Missed Opportunity on Climate Change: This is  great article on how President Obama’s stance on climate change has slipped some since before he was elected. It also does a great job of explaining why the bill headed his way will be completely unsatisfactory from an economic point of view – why a poorly written carbon cap-and-trade system may cost you more money instead of save you money like it should.

Just do It: “Yes, this bill’s goal of reducing U.S. carbon emissions to 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 is nowhere near what science tells us we need to mitigate climate change” says Thomas L. Friedman, the author of Hot, Flat, and Crowded and The World is Flat. “More important, my gut tells me that if the U.S. government puts a price on carbon, even a weak one, it will usher in a new mind-set among consumers, investors, farmers, innovators and entrepreneurs that in time will make a big difference — much like the first warnings that cigarettes could cause cancer. The morning after that warning no one ever looked at smoking the same again.”

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More on US-China Emissions

I did a bit of analysis on a set of data in the new Annual Energy Review 2008 (released June 2009). The Review is created by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) – the statistical agency of the US Department of Energy.

Although there is a lot of information about energy production and consumption in this report, I want to write a bit more about CO2 release in China and the USA. I mentioned last post that the US and China are jointly responsible for 40% of the world’s CO2 emissions. I did a bit of analysis on the emissions numbers and came up with some interesting results.

  • 2006 was the first year that Chinese CO2 emissions were greater than US emissions. 2006 is the most recent data available because it’s complicated to calculate how much CO2 an entire country emits.
  • US emissions are increasing by approximately 40 million metric tons every year (less than 1% increase per year). That’s about half of Romania’s total emissions every year.
  • China’s emissions are increasing by approximately 550 million metric tons every year (nearly 10% increase per year!). That’s all of the UK’s emissions.
  • So every year, the US emits about half-a-Romania more than it did the year before and China emits a whole United Kingdom more than it did the year before. China is growing quickly and emitting a lot more CO2 as a result.

I whipped up the graph below (click on it) to show US and Chinese emissions over the last few years. I added some trend-lines to the data so that it’s clear exactly what’s happened over the last few years.

US China CO2 Emissions Graph

Try to see if you can guess, based on the last few years data, how much the USA and China will emit in 2009. From the graph, I estimate that China will emit between 7,300 and  8,300 million metric tons of CO2 in 2009. The US won’t even break 6,500 million metric tons of CO2 by then.

So China is growing out of control? Yes and no.

China should definitely work on slowing their CO2 emission rate as their country continues to develop. But there’s another side to these emissions numbers. These numbers are for the entire country. Let’s take a look at the emissions per person.

In 2006, China had approximately 1.31 billion people. The US had approximately 298 million people. So China has over 4 times as many people as the US does. That means that the average American released 4 times as much CO2 as the average Chinese citizen in 2006. That fact makes it a bit harder to ask the Chinese to reduce their emissions if the US won’t do the same.

Bottom Line: If you think that China’s emissions are growing out of control, then it’s pretty clear that US emissions have been out of control for decades.

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US climate change policy stuck on China

A NYTimes article from last month discusses the recent talks between China and the USA to see eye to eye on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The heart of the issue is that China will not commit to a specific GHG reduction quota and that the USA will not commit to enough reductions.

Together, China and the USA, release 40% of the world’s greenhouse gases. Wow, right? Over the past decade, there has been no real progress on the issue because of all the finger pointing.

World CO2 emissions

China and the USA are the largest releasers of CO2 in the world by a huge margin.

The USA doesn’t want China to grow any stronger politically and economically. Remember that China is a “Communist” nation…kinda, and that the US isn’t really okay with that. The US wants to stay #1. Who doesn’t want to be on top? China certainly does. But China has a lot more development to do before its 750+ million peasants can live at the desired standard of living -  a standard Americans have had for decades. Simply put: development requires energy, a lot of it. Traditional energy releases a lot of greenhouse gases – especially in China where coal-fired power plants are very inefficient. So China wants to develop and that’s going to release GHGs.

The Chinese and much of the developing world find it unfair that the USA will only commit to change if the rest of the world makes the same commitment. “Little progress can be made in addressing the global climate crisis, after all, unless common cause is found between rich countries, who created the problem in becoming so, and poorer countries, which understandably resent the idea that they ought not pursue a similar, CO2-belching path to vitality” Tom Zeller recently wrote.

The US doesn’t want to be surpassed by developing nations and therefore will not make a serious reduction commitment. The above NYTimes article cites current legislation of a 4% reduction from 1990 emissions by 2020 that currently being considered by the US government. The rest of the world was thinking the USA would reduce by more like 40% over that same time period. The current bill being condiered is junk. That’s not the American way.

For some reason people assume that reducing emissions means that we all start riding in the Flintstones’ foot-propelled car and that we’ll have to live in caves. It doesn’t. In fact, I’m confident we can increase our quality of living and still preserve the world that we absolutely depend on to live.

Yabba-Dabba Do!

Yabba-Dabba Do!

If the USA wants to compete with China in the long term, it should be dumping money into alternative energy and emissions reduction research. This would create millions of new domestic jobs, strengthen the current US economic situation, encourage a re-evaluation of the US primary, secondary, and post-secondary school systems, and help the US stay competitive with the countries that are funneling money into the future of technology: Japan, China, The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Germany, Spain, France. How can anyone argue with better education, more jobs, and a brighter future for both the US and the world?

Bottom Line: The US government should move forward with serious emissions mitigation steps with or without China’s commitment. The Chinese government will eventually be forced to reduce their emissions. When that happens, the Chinese can pay the US for the required technology. It’s a win-win: we commit to stop destroying the planet and continue to improve world-wide living standards. But, if the US government doesn’t start making a serious effort to reduce emissions at home, then we will not only destroy our planet but continue to suffer economically.

Edit: There’s a bit more here about US-China emissions policy and the “old trap: hiding behind each other so that neither [the US or China] would have to do anything difficult or expensive.” President of Mexico, Felipe Calderón says: ‘”The finger-pointing has gone on for more than a decade without humanity taking a single step forward in the fight against climate change”

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Back home

Sorry for not posting for a bit – I just got back home from 7 weeks of traveling. I’ll be back in the swing of things soon. AKB

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Beef: Getting more than you bargained for

Cows eating... Grass! (Source: http://www.uky.edu/Ag/PAT/recs/livestk/livestk.htm)

Cows eating... Grass! (Source: http://www.uky.edu/Ag/PAT/recs/livestk/livestk.htm)

Lately it seems that the livestock industry, particularly cattle have been getting some negative publicity. One of the latest articles on this topic, Greening the Herds: A New Diet to Cap Gas from the New York Times highlights the contribution of cattle ranches to world greenhouse gas emissions and a new effort at US dairies to decrease emissions. The article includes gross, but sobering information about exactly how cattle contribute to global climate change by stating that “the average cow expels — through burps mostly, but some flatulence — 200 to 400 pounds of methane a year.” It seems that bovines haven’t always had digestive difficulties, though; the excessive emissions from cows are the result of the grain based diet they are fed. Cows evolved to consume a grass based diet, which is why they are less healthy consuming grains and produce so much methane.

Concern over the gaseous emission from cattle has escalated in light of the United Nation’s prediction that beef and dairy production will double worldwide in the next 30 years and a 2006 study that “estimated that cows might be more dangerous to Earth’s atmosphere than trucks and cars combined.” In response to concerns over bovine emissions, the dairy industry (which accounts for only 2% of greenhouse gas emissions in the US) has decided to decrease its emissions by 25%. How do they plan to do this you may ask? Well, they are using all sorts of biological tricks such as genetic modifications to make cattle that burp less, altering the bacteria in the animal’s guts, and modifying their diet so it more closely resembles the grasses they evolved to eat. A dairy in Vermont is giving diet modification a try by using a feed mix that European cattle already consume to cut emissions.

Now, these efforts are admirable, but I feel that they are all circumventing the heart of the problem:

1)      Cattle are being fed the wrong food

2)      There are too many cattle on the wrong diet and there are soon to be more

Don’t get me wrong, I am not a vegetarian and I realized long ago that trying to deny people a juicy steak would probably be the equivalent of denying them electricity and running water, but this problem is undeniably rooted in the scale of the modern livestock industry. The US alone holds about 80 million animal units (an animal unit is equal to 1000 lbs of live animal) of dairy and beef cattle. Genetically modifying cattle and giving them fancy new feeds cannot contain the problem if consumption of cattle products still increases, as the U.N. predicts. In addition, cattle contribute to a long list of other environmental hazards such as the energy intensity of modern livestock production, water quality, and air quality. Not to mention a whole list of health complications connected to excessive meat consumption. The overall environmental and health hazards of beef and dairy production has its roots in our demand for these products. I won’t expand any further on this topic, I believe that the question of demand is up to the individual and requires personal reflection.

Now, back to my first point: cattle are being fed the wrong food. I was amazed to hear that the solution to the problem of the unnatural diet of modern cattle was solved by adding flax seed, alfalfa and supplements to their grain diet that “mimic the spring grasses that the animals evolved long ago to eat.” Hmmm… my question is: Why don’t they just give them the grasses?

Another source of greenhouse gas emissions that this article didn’t mention comes from cow’s decomposing manure. Emissions from livestock manure can be cut by anaerobically digesting the waste to produce biogas and using the biogas to generate electricity and displace fossil fuel fired electricity generation. Usually livestock operations will either store the manure in a lagoon (which emits methane, a gas with 21 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide) or leave it out in the open to decompose; this method emits nitrous oxide, which has 310 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide. Besides emitting potent greenhouse gases, livestock manure also emits toxic air pollutants (ammonia, particulate matter, NoX and others), can run off into surface water or contaminate ground water (some areas experience algal blooms in their potable water reservoirs due to run-off, tastes yummy!). Biogas production eliminates many of these problems. Most large cattle operations already gather and store manure in one of these two ways, which makes a switch to biogas production much easier.

Yes, that is a huge pile of cow manure on fire. (source: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/01/28/national/main670076.shtml)

Yes, that is a huge pile of cow manure on fire. (source: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/01/28/national/main670076.shtml)

Bottom line: Modern beef and dairy production methods pose a hazard to the environment in the form of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution in general. The problem (of greenhouse gas emissions at least) is rooted in the scale of the modern cattle industry and the grain based feed that constitutes their diets. Let us not forget this when coming up with solutions: a grass based diet, rethinking our demand for beef and dairy, and making better use of manure.

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